Cabinet Changes

I believe 2 main questions are on the minds of Singaporeans awaiting the cabinet reshuffle

1. Who will be the next PM?
2. Who will be the next transport minister?

1. The next PM is widely suspected to be Tharman Shanmugaratnam. I agree that this is likely to be the case, given his popularity with the Singaporean populace. However, it is too sudden for a change in PM. LKY and GCT relinquished their portfolios midterm and I would expect LHL to do the same. Mr Tharman could take over as PM somewhere in 2017 or 2018.


2. I believe the next cup bearer of the poison chalice to be...
Dr Vivian Balakrishnan. Why?

- new faces from GE 2015 are likely to be given the minister of state
position (only Heng Swee Keat was promoted to full minister immediately
upon election), hence the new appointee is likely to already be a current
cabinet minister

- the transport portfolio is considered to be a junior ministerial portfolio,
full ministers taking up more senior portfolios (MHA, MFA, Mindef,
Health, Trade, education) are unlikely to be reshuffled to transport

- ministers who have recently been given new portfolios in 2015 will
probably remain in their current portfolios (Tan Chuan-Jin, Chan Chun
Sing, Lim Swee Say, S. Iswaran, Masagos Zuklifi)

- Ms Grace Fu has been understudying senior portfolios as 2nd minister
(MFA) for some time and may be promoted to full minister

- Dr Yaacob Ibrahim is Malay and PM will probably not appoint him to an
unpopular portfolio as this might irritate the Malay community

- Mr Lawrence Wong is supposed to form the core of the 4G ministers so
PM may not want to give him an unpopular portfolio

This leaves Dr Balakrishnan.

Overall, the cabinet will probably remain more or less unchanged for this first reshuffle. I would expect only 2 changes:

1. Dr Balakrishnan to Transport ministry
2. Ms Grace Fu to take over MEWR